One year under Prabowo – consolidation of the oligarchy, collapse of environmental justice, and threat to public safety

19.03.2026

This text is a significantly shortened translation of the WALHI publication: “Catatan kritis – satu tahun pemerintah Prabowo - Kosolidasi Oligarki, Ambruknya Keadilan Ekologis, dan Terancamnya Keselamatan Rakyat.” The original version is available at https://www.walhi.or.id/uploads/WALHI 2025-2029/Dokumen/Catatan Kritis Satu Tahun Pemerintahan Prabowo 2025.pdf.

Introduction

“Indonesia gelap” (English: “dark Indonesia”) is not just a hashtag but expresses the current situation in Indonesia under the leadership of President Prabowo and his Vice President Gibran. An increase in the number of ministries, policies that disregard the protection of human rights and environmental protection, and the revival of military dominance in the civilian sphere, reflect the current regression happening in Indonesia. In his speeches, Prabowo praises the constitution and the sovereignty of the people, although in actual fact he shows little regard for them.

Indonesia’s democracy keeps moving further away from the spirit of the constitution, as the first year under the Prabowo-Gibran administration has shown. Its political measures and the practice of governance bear signs of a military approach and have shown evidence of ambitions to strengthen the military. Under Prabowo and Gibran, the mistakes of the previous Joko Widodo administration are being continued. A policy of extractivism is being perpetuated and citizens' rights to an intact and healthy environment are being neglected.

For the sake of economic growth: livelihoods are being mortgaged and a mountain of debt handed down

Prabowo's government has set an economic growth target of 8%.

In order to achieve the mentioned growth target, the government needs to continue increasing investments, particularly by expanding permits for the exploitation of natural resources and thereby inevitably causing a negative impact on the environment and social inequality.

This growth strategy also means an increase in production and consumption activities, which in turn will lead to the extraction and exploitation of natural resources. Meanwhile the economy does not take into account the balance between extraction and regeneration of nature.

The government is particularly focusing on expanding the processing and refinement (Hilirisasi) of minerals and forestry products in pursuing its growth targets and other national strategic projects are being pushed forward. Limits of environmental resilience are being ignored. In order to secure profits for the producers, consumption will have to be promoted, which in turn will further increase waste generation and the burden on the environment. This vicious circle accelerates the climate crisis and exacerbates the risk of ecological disasters.

In order to further boost the economy, the government considers consumption-driven, debt-financed public spending to be an effective measure. However, in 2025 alone, the Indonesian government had to repay debts amounting to 1,353.2 trillion rupiah (approx. 69 billion euros). [1] An economic growth target of 8% based on loans will foreseeably cause the mountain of debt to stealthily grow. Future generations will have to bear the burden of these debts and interests, which may leave them with little choice but to exploit natural resources even more intensely in order to repay the debt.

The growth of the state apparatus as a reflection of transactional politics

The large cabinet formed by Prabowo reflects increasingly overt transactional politics: a policy of giving and taking in which posts and offices are exchanged for loyalty and support.

Never before in Indonesia's history has there been such a large cabinet, with a total of 48 ministries and 109 ministers and deputy ministers. Prabowo made this possible by amending Law No. 39 of 2008 and thus removing the upper limit on the number of ministries.

WALHI considers the expansion of the cabinet not only an expression of political greed but also a step backwards in bureaucratic reform. Each additional ministry means additional administrative offices, a larger civil service and an increase in sectoral solid cross-sectoral coordination, not an additional load of bureaucracy. A government based on political transactions of this kind will create a bureaucratic state but not a state that serves it’s people. [2]

Behind the expansion and enlargement of the cabinet lies an increasingly apparent development: the continuation of extractivism in the name of food security, the energy sector and the expansion of processing industries. Two million hectares of indigenous forest are being cleared for rice fields and sugar cane for bioethanol as part of the Food Estate project in Merauke – a project that not only robs the indigenous population of their land, but also accelerates deforestation and the climate crisis.

A closer look at the structure of the ministries also reveals who benefits from this course of procedure. The Ministry of Environment, Forestry and Marine Affairs has been subordinated to the Coordinating Ministry for Food, and thus nature and the sea now merely serve as suppliers of raw materials for large-scale industrial food projects. [3]

Free nutritious meals and nutrition policy

One of Prabowo’s key election promises was the programme for free nutritious meals (Makan bergizi gratis – MBG). However, the implementation of the programme has caused serious problems, ranging from budget cuts in other departments to more than 5,000 schoolchildren suffering food poisoning in various regions of the country and the promotion of a food policy based on large-scale land use. The budget for the MBG programme for 2025 was 71 trillion rupiah (approx. 3.6 billion euros), which was financed by cuts in the education and health budgets and the budget for economic functions.

Additionally, the government has earmarked 124.4 trillion rupiah (approx. 6.34 billion euros) for the Food-Estates programme in the 2025 draft state budget. [4] The priority here is developing new farmland and building dams and artificial irrigation systems. However, most of the food produced for the MBG programme is not sourced from small-scale farming and livestock breeding, nor is it based on local production. Considering the high budget for the MBG programme and the food storage facilities, and bearing in mind the poor implementation of the programme, one cannot help but suspect that the MBG programme is merely a modus operandi to legitimise land acquisition projects for the Food-Estates without lengthy approval procedures.

Food-Estates as a measure to achieve food sovereignty are already having a serious impact on the environment and human rights. The Food-Estate projects in Central Kalimantan, North Sumatra, and Merauke showcase the government's failure to maintain food sovereignty. In South Papua alone, 480,000 hectares of forest have been cleared for the creation of new rice fields and sugar cane plantations. The indigenous population of South Papua is threatened with the loss of their ancestral lands, local foods, traditional medicine, and even their identity in the name of large-scale food projects. [5]

Legalisation of palm oil cultivation in forest areas and lack of guidelines for remedying environmental damage

Prabowo triumphantly announced to Parliament and the People's Assembly in a speech on August 15, 2025, that the state had confiscated 3.1 million hectares of illegal palm oil plantations in forest areas.

However, this repossession of illegal palm oil plantations in the name of forest area management was carried out in a completely arbitrary manner. The government subsequently exacerbated the situation by transferring 1 million hectares of the plantations to the company PT Agrinas Palma Nusantara, without any clear legal basis. [6]

The confiscation of illegal palm oil plantations in forest areas and the transfer of palm oil areas to Agrinas as a form of repatriation of assets are regulated by the Presidential Regulation (Perpres) 5/2025.

This presidential Regulation marks a new chapter in the retroactive legalization of illegal forest use, which is controlled by the PKH Task Force (Satuan Tugas Penertiban Kawasan Hutan, English: Task Force for the Regulation of Forest Areas) – a unit whose structure is largely determined by the military. Even the management of the state-owned company PT Agrinas is predominantly made up of high-ranking officers from the Indonesian armed forces.

According to observations by WALHI, measures to regulate forest areas have consistently created new problems instead of undertaking serious efforts to achieve ecological restoration and the return of land to local populations. In many regions, the regulatory process fails to address the core issues. Citizens in several areas have even been coerced into paying levies or forced to cede their land under threat of violence.

Populations that are merely trying to uphold their livelihoods are being criminalised by such measures. The state, which is supposed to represent the interests of its citizens, instead acts as an authority that oppresses the people.

The main problem with implementing PKH measures is not solely a question of legality but rather the lack of serious efforts to restore forest areas and implement the land rights of the population. There is no guarantee that areas that have been “regulated” will actually be ecologically regenerated or returned to indigenous or local communities. This despite the fact that these communities have always preserved the forest. The state appears to be focusing more on reorganising land ownership in the forestry sector than on enforcing justice. In view of the climate crisis and increasingly serious environmental destruction, such an approach is a dramatic step backwards.

Revision of the Minerba Law: Mining, transactions, and the population as victims

Early in 2025, the House of Representatives, together with the government, passed an amendment of the Minerba Law, which regulates mineral and coal mining. WALHI considers this a turning point towards a model of natural resource management that is increasingly exploitative and undemocratic. The amendment of the law promotes liberalisation and privatisation, weakens state control, and disregards the principles of environmental justice and the right of communities to a safe living environment.

The political approach to the sector of raw materials and mining is not consistent. Without taking into account the ecological and social functions of the areas, mining permits are also being granted on small islands and in vulnerable coastal areas. The cases of Wawonii Island, Obi Island and Raja Ampat show how nickel mining destroys coral reefs, pollutes the sea, eliminates water sources and affects the health of the population. In addition, the amendment of the law reinforces the process of liberalisation and privatisation of natural resources. Research by WALHI and Auriga shows that 10 million hectares of mining land are controlled by companies, with 4.7 million hectares controlled by 55 corporate groups. The state only acts as a licensor while private companies collect the profits.

Hostage of the energy transition: corporate dominance and the continuation of the fossil fuel era

The year 2025 was supposed to be a turning point for a fair and democratic energy transition in Indonesia. However, the government's policies are strengthening corporate dominance and prolonging dependence on fossil fuels. The energy transition is turning into a new sphere of exploitation and injustice instead of reducing emissions and supporting approaches to collective energy generation.

There was no significant commitment to phasing out fossil fuels or accelerating a justice-based energy transition throughout 2025. The issue was not a priority either during the 2024 elections, and the population was not significantly involved in energy planning. Public consultations were simply a formality, and decisions remained hierarchical (‘top-down’) – contradicting the principles of energy democracy and ecological justice.

The Prabowo government passed the National Electricity Supply Plan for 2025-2034. This plan envisions the construction of fossil fuel-fired power plants with a capacity of 16.6 GW, of which 10.3 GW is to come from gas-fired power plants. [7] This stands in striking contrast to the goal of independence and efficiency in energy consumption propagated by President Prabowo. Dependence on gas also carries the risk of rising emissions and a higher fiscal burden on the national budget, while a concrete roadmap for decommissioning old coal-fired power plants (PLTU) is still missing.

Many measures that are portrayed as contributing to the energy transition are in fact pseudo-solutions with aim of merely appearing to be sustainable. Geothermal projects, waste incineration plants, and the expansion of critical mineral mining are marketed as part of decarbonisation, but in reality cause serious social and environmental demage.

The Muara Laboh geothermal project in West Sumatra led to crop losses and pollution

The amendment of the law is rather an expression of economic power consolidation at the expense of the environment and the rights of the population, than merely a regulatory change. WALHI demands a review of this policy and a strengthening of mechanisms of ecological protection and participation of citizens in the management of natural resources.

of the environment due to its proximity to settlements. In North Sumatra, the Sarulla geothermal project caused agricultural conflicts and loss of income for farmers. In Padarincang, Gede Pangrango, Ciremai, Baturaden, Dieng, Arjuno-Welirang, Lemongan, Wae Sano and Poco, resistance to geothermal projects is rising. Amidst the push for large-scale projects that are officially declared part of the energy transition, community-based approaches to renewable energy remain completely ignored. Yet it is precisely this model that places the population at the centre of fair and sustainable energy production. Financing programmes such as JETP and AZEC favour large corporations and high technology without providing specific funds for local initiatives.

Communities in regions such as East Nusa Tenggara and West Kalimantan that want to build communal solar power plants are often hindered by regulations, unclear land status and a lack of technical support. This inequality clearly shows that the energy transition in Indonesia is not being carried out in the interests of citizens but rather serves the economic and political interests of the elites.

The paradox behind Indonesia's climate commitments

An opposite approach is evident in various recent regulations, such as Government Regulation No. 40 of 2025 on National Energy Policy and the Strategic Plan for Electricity Supply. With a share of 26–32 percent, fossil fuels continue to dominate the energy sector, and the government is planning to build additional gas and coal-fired power plants with a capacity of 16.6 gigawatts over the next ten years.

President Prabowo Subianto has repeatedly affirmed at international conferences that Indonesia is committed to taking concrete action to combat climate change. Among other promises, he has pledged to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060 or sooner. In practice, however, the country's energy and development policies point in a different direction.

The government is promoting ‘false solutions’ such as biomass co-firing and carbon capture and storage (CCS/CCUS) technologies, which are intended to extend the life of coal-fired power plants instead of reducing emissions. A study by Forest Watch Indonesia notes that biomass as fuel for 52 coal-fired power plants could potentially cause deforestation of up to 4.65 million hectares. [8][1]

The approach to climate adaptation shows the same logical fallacy. The plan to build a giant sea wall in northern Java, for example, is being revived as a major adaptation project against sea level rise. WALHI has assessed this project to be a maladaptation that threatens the lives of coastal communities and accelerates the destruction of marine ecosystems.[9]

The Prabowo government's climate commitment has so far been purely declaratory in nature. It continues to view the climate crisis as a technocratic challenge rather than a crisis of justice.However, the declaration of commitment to climate protection will remain nothing more than diplomatic rhetoric on a global stage as long as climate policy is primarily subordinated to capital interests and the logic of economic growth.

The government's failure to deal with environmental disasters

The government has failed to respond adequately to environmental disasters throughout Prabowo’s first year of presidency. Environmental disasters have been occurring in the greater area of Jakarta (Jabodetabek) since early March of 2025, further exacerbating the ongoing ecological crisis. Both injustice and failed policies on natural resources - in residential areas and existing ecosystems - have led to this crisis of environmental destruction.

Uncontrolled exploitation of the environment is the main factor exacerbating this disaster. Forests in and surrounding the Puncak region have in several cases had to make way for settlements, villlas and tourist destinations, despite their originally intended usage as watershed areas. WALHI West Java has recorded an increase in the level of environmental damage in this area from 45% to 65% over the past 5 years.

Without regard for ecological impact and carrying capacity, and without taking into account environmental impact assessments (AMDAL) in disaster-prone areas, land use changes are oftentimes being approved. WALHI West Java emphasises that many permits for real estate and tourism businesses have been granted without thorough assessments. In addition, illegal sand and stone mining further deteriorates the condition of the soil, making it more vulnerable to erosion and landslides.

Unfortunately, President Prabowo's government does not consider ecological disasters to be a national problem that must be addressed at its root causes. Instead ecological disasters continue to be seen as events that can be resolved simply through the distribution of immediate and targeted aid. However, the evaluation of the causes underlying these disasters is still lacking in depth. The Prabowo government has shown no strategic efforts to prevent and manage ecological crises over the past year. On the contrary, fundamental problems of ecological disasters, such as investment- and exploitation-oriented resource policies, mismanagement in land use planning, environmentally damaging construction projects, and weak law enforcement are ignored by President Prabowo and Gibran's agenda, which aims for an economic growth of 8 %.

[1] Radio Republik Indonesia, Peneliti INDEF: Pemerintah Prabowo-Gibran Terbebani Utang Rp1.353 Triliun, https://rri.co.id/keuangan/1128742/peneliti-indef-pemerintah-prabowo-gibran-terbebani-utang-rp1-353-triliun

[2] Kompas: Seberapa Besar Potensi Pembengkakan Anggaran karena Gemuknya Kabinet Prabowo?. https://www.kompas.id/artikel/seberapa-besar-potensi-pembengkakan-anggaran-karena-gemuknya-kabinet-prabowo

[3] WALHI: Penyelamatan Lingkungan dan SDA Rezim Prabowo Gibran di Tepi Jurang, https://www.walhi.or.id/penyelamatan-lingkungan-dan-sda-rezim-prabowo-gibran-di-tepi-jurang

[4] Tempo: Sri Mulyani Sebut Prabowo Akan Lanjutkan Food Estate, Alokasi Anggaran Mencapai Rp124,4 Triliun, https://www.tempo.co/ekonomi/sri-mulyani-sebut-prabowo-akan-lanjutkan-food-estate-alokasi-anggaran-mencapai-rp-124-4-triliun-15048

[5] WALHI, PSN Pangan dan Energi di Papua: Kekerasan Terbuka Negara Terhadap Lingkungan dan Masyarakat Adat Papua, https://www.walhi.or.id/psn-pangan-dan-energi-di-papua-kekerasan-terbuka-negara-terhadap-lingkungan-dan-masyarakat-adat-papua

[6] Kementerian Pertahanan Republik Indonesia, Menhan RI Saksikan Penyerahan Penguasaan Kembali Kawasan Hutan Tahap II Seluas 1 Juta Hektar, dan Penguasaan Taman Nasional Tesso Nilo, serta Kebun Kelapa Sawit Hasil Penguasaan Satgas PKH, https://www.kemhan.go.id/2025/07/09/menhan-ri-saksikan-penyerahan-penguasaan-kembali-kawasan-hutan-tahap-ii-seluas-1-juta-hektar-dan-penguasaan-taman-nasional-tesso-nilo-serta-kebun-kelapa-sawit-hasil-penguasaan-satgas-pkh.html

[7] Muhammad Saleh: Salah arah peta jalan transisi energi Indonesia, https://theconversation.com/salah-arah-peta-jalan-transisi-energi-indonesia-257231

[8] Trend Asia: Membakar dan Menebang Hutan Bukan Solusi Energi Bersih, Tak Pantas Masuk Pendanaan JETP, https://trendasia.org/membakar-dan-menebang-hutan-bukan-solusi-energi-bersih-tak-pantas-masuk-pendanaan-jetp

[9] WALHI: Tanggul Laut Raksasa, Solusi Palsu Krisis Iklim serta Percepat Kebangkrutan Ekologis Daratan dan Perairan Pulau Jawa, https://www.walhi.or.id/tanggul-laut-raksasa-solusi-palsu-krisis-iklim-serta-percepat-kebangkrutan-ekologis-daratan-dan-perairan-pulau-jawa

One year under Prabowo – consolidation of the oligarchy, collapse of environmental justice, and threat to public safety

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